MAT 540 Quantitative Methods Week 5 Midterm Answers – Homeworkmade

DOWNLOAD: MAT 540 Quantitative Methods Week 5 Midterm Answers – Homeworkmade

MAT 540 Week 5 Midterm (Strayer)

1. Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters. 
2. An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
3. A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
4. A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
5. A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
6. Simulation results will always equal analytical results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
7. Qualitative methods are the least common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
8. The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
9. __________ is a measure of dispersion of random variable values about the expected value.
10. Assume that it takes a college student an average of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.  Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find a parking spot in the main parking lot?
11. The __________ is the expected value of the regret for each decision.
12. A seed value is a(n)
13. Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order to be considered truly random.
14. Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below.  The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
15. In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
16. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
17. Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
18. __________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
19. Consider the following graph of sales. Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
20. __________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.
21. Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
22. In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
23. __________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
24. __________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
25. A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
26. A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
27. A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75?  Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
28. An automotive center keeps tracks of customer complaints received each week.  The probability distribution for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both shown below.  The random variable xi represents the number of complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi complaints.
29. Consider the following decision tree. What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in your answer.
30. The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will he hire?
31. Given the following random number ranges and the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40,  86, 93, determine the average demand for the following distribution of demand.
32. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
33. Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast. Year    Demand           Forecast 
34. Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame: Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
35. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008 :
36. The following sales data are available for 2003-2008. Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
37. The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
38. Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-2008.
39. Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were:  95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.  Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are applied to the most recent data.
40. This is the data from the last 4 weeks: Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.